Gallup has a new study out that shows party ID has remained stable during the Trump era. Forty-seven percent of adults identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, and 42 percent identify as Republican or Republican-leaning independents. “As the 2020 presidential election campaign gets underway in earnest,” writes Jeffrey M. Jones, “America’s party leanings are the same as they were in 2016, indicating the Trump era has not fundamentally altered the U.S. political landscape.”
Democrats have had the edge in party ID since 1991. The Democrats’ greatest advantage was in 2008 when 40 percent of adults identified with the GOP and 52 percent identified with the Democrats. The current five-point gap is in line with the average divergence in the post-Cold War era. There are more Democrats than Republicans, but they tend to be clustered in cities and along the coasts, while Republican voters are more evenly distributed throughout the country.
Which is why these party ID numbers shouldn’t worry Republicans overmuch. After all, they are the same as in 2016. When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.