The Corner

Galluping in The Wrong Direction

I’d recommend caution in interpreting the Gallup finding that Bush-Cheney actually got a “bounce” from the Democratic convention. Surely Dems have to be disappointed that the weeklong informercial gained them little ground in the various polls, but they won’t believe the Gallup finding of a four-point Republican lead. Neither do I. Gallup has a history of wildly gyrating numbers on presidential races, showing much more volatility that other polls. I presume it has something to do with its sampling and weighting procedures. If the Gallup numbers wander back towards a Kerry lead in the coming days or weeks, that won’t necessarily mean anything, either, though I’m sure lots of folks will invent elaborate news-cycle explanations for it.

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