Former New Jersey governor Tom Kean tells National Review Online that he’s keeping an eye on the 3rd congressional district, where Republican Jon Runyan, a former NFL lineman, is locked in a close race with Rep. John Adler, a freshman Democrat.
“I think we’re competitive there,” Kean says. “We should pick that up. I’ve spoken with Democrats in the district, people who’ve seen the internal polling, and they’re all pretty downcast.”
Another clash to watch, Kean says, is in New Jersey’s 6th, where Tea Party favorite Anna Little is challenging veteran Rep. Frank Pallone. The district, Duncan Currie points out, spans four counties in the east-central portion of the state, and is “economically heterogeneous but thoroughly Democratic.”
The last time eleven-term Rep. Frank Pallone faced even a semi-competitive race was 1998, when he triumphed by 17 percentage points. Since then, he has garnered at least 66 percent of the vote in every cycle . . . . The trouble for Little is that his district has more than twice as many registered Democrats as registered Republicans. Barack Obama carried it by 22 points in 2008, and the MUPI poll concluded that just 37 percent of its likely voters want the GOP to retake Congress, compared with 47 percent who hope the Democrats maintain control. Meanwhile, 51 percent have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, which has provided the grassroots energy for Little’s campaign.
Kean says that he is rooting for Little but that she faces an uphill climb. “If there is a wave, a very strong wave, then she has a chance. It would be a wonderful pick-up.”
Kean is unsure about whether turnout will be strong statewide. “We don’t have a lot of contested elections in New Jersey,” he says. “The mood out there (among Republicans) is pretty good, but there are not too many contested congressional seats.”
Still, “people want to send a message,” Kean says. “They want to see a change.” Republicans, he cautions, should not view any sweep as a surefire endorsement. “It’s not as if people love the GOP, they really don’t,” he says. “It’s more about them trying to stop a tilt (to the left).”
Kean notes that Gov. Chris Christie, the Garden State’s GOP governor, has done his part to influence the midterms. “He’s done most of his work out of state,” Kean says. “I’m delighted, and a little surprised, to see a governor in his first year make this kind of impact on the national stage. He’s a rock star on the road, and terrific on his feet. He’s very bright and very quick.”
“But both here in New Jersey, and around the country, people see him as someone who stood up and did the right thing — as someone who’s taken people on who should have been taken on a long time ago.” Admiration for Christie, he says, “goes across party lines . . . Reagan Democrats, independents, hardnosed blue-collar people — they respect him.”
Will Christie run for president in 2012? “It would have to come to him,” Kean says. “He has said very strongly that he won’t do it. My advice to him is to keep his head down, and to work in his own garden next year. He’s really going to have to concentrate on the problems ahead, like balancing the state budget. It’s great to see him out there now, but he’s going to have a real fight on his hands with the Democratic legislature, and it’ll be hard to run around the state and country as he makes very unpopular reductions (in the budget).”