There is a well-known gender gap among American voters, but the salience of the issue of abortion has not affected the size of the gap from 2018 to 2022.
From the 2018 midterm elections to the 2022 midterms, male voters swung 10 points toward the Republicans, while female voters swung 11 points toward the Republicans:
2020:
Men: Trump+8
Women: Biden+15 pic.twitter.com/kcAadqZTJ8— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) November 10, 2022
In 2018, men voted Republican by a 4-point margin, while women voted Democratic by a 19-point margin. That’s a 23-point gender gap.
In 2020, men voted for Trump by an 8-point margin, while women voted for Biden by a 15-point margin. That’s a 23-point gender gap.
In 2022, men voted Republican by a 14-point margin, while women voted Democratic by an 8-point margin. That’s a 22-point gender gap.
So, in each of the last three elections, the gender gap has been almost identical. That doesn’t mean that the issue of abortion had no impact in the 2022 elections; it just means that the salience of the issue hasn’t produced any discernible difference in the overall voting patterns of men and women.
And no one can doubt that the salience of the issue was highest in 2022: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade on June 24, Democrats aired at least $415 million in abortion ads, and Democrats surely received many times that amount in free advertising on the issue from the media.
How much the issue mattered in 2022 is a topic that deserves lengthy analysis, but it’s notable that it did not widen the gender gap.