From a reader:
“As someone who has been involved with special election campaigns in Orange County, here’s the thing that should spook the GOP: the preliminary numbers I’ve seen show Gilchrist got 35% of the vote on election day, while Campbell got about 30%. But special elections are all about the absentee ballot votes (especially in CA), and Campbell had the best consultant in the business for absentee ballot drills (David Gilliard.) Gilchrist, a third party candidate, did no absentee ballot drill to speak of, apparently wasted most of his money on radio ads instead of direct mail campaigning (without making this email too long to read, due to Southern California’s bizarre media market, media campaigns in a small legislative district, especially in a special, are a waste of dollars.) 66% of the ballots in this election were cast absentee. If Gilchrist had run in a GOP primary election with competent consultants the result might have been different — even with his baggage.”