Democrats can probably recapture the House just by consolidating their hold over places already trending their way (like the Northeast and mid-Atlantic) and capitalizing on opportunities created by Republican scandals (including districts in Ohio and Pennsylvania). By converting the opportunities in states that fall into those two categories, Democrats also could capture Republican Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Ohio.
But Democrats can take the Senate only by breaking through in states such as Missouri, Montana and Virginia, where Republican defenses remain formidable. A big win in the House would require Democrats to overrun the GOP in conservative-leaning districts across states such as North Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky.
That means Democrats won’t maximize their gains unless they can cross the last mile with voters in right-of-center communities whose partisan and cultural inclinations usually bend them to the GOP in the end.
Also, he’s probably right to focus on Missouri, the “cleanest” political Senate fight of the season. It’s in a battleground state where the Republican has no scandals and has made no unforced errors. It will be a good indicator if the national Democratic tide is really showing up tomorrow night or not…