The last three polls in the Minnesota U.S. Senate race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya have Flanagan ahead by one percentage point, a tie, and Flanagan ahead by one percentage point. For a Democratic-leaning state and a challenging political environment, those are some excellent numbers for former television sports reporter Tafoya, one of just eight guests in the history of the Three Martini Lunch podcast. This isn’t a guarantee that Tafoya will win, but it does indicate that this is a race, and if you’re the NRSC, it might be worth putting some extra resources in this one. (Judging by Ken Paxton’s latest complaint that President Trump and the GOP midterm convention didn’t help him any, it might be time for the GOP to cut its losses in the Lone Star State.) And we know Democrats were not expecting to have to fight for a Senate seat in Minnesota.
Notice that the governor’s race has Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar well ahead of Republican Lisa Demuth. This suggests that the Minnesota state government’s egregious performance in responding to large-scale fraud is likely really hurting Flanagan, and Klobuchar’s lack of a direct connection to the state government is helping her enjoy the traditional Democratic advantage there.