Good Polling News for Lee Zeldin, Tudor Dixon, and Mark Ronchetti against Incumbent Democrat Governors

If you’re looking for signs of hope in the races against incumbent Democrat governors, this morning’s poll releases have optimistic news in three races out of four. A Trafalgar poll shows Lee Zeldin now tied 48–48 with New York governor Kathy Hochul; an Insider Advantage poll shows Tudor Dixon now tied 45–45 with Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer; and an Emerson College poll shows Mark Ronchetti down two points, 50 percent to 48 percent, to New Mexico governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. The bad news is in Colorado, where an Emerson poll shows governor Jared Polis firmly in command, 54 percent to 41 percent, over Heidi Ganahl. If a bunch of blue-state incumbent governors go down, a lot of national Democrats will be looking at Polis after the election and asking what he did right.

Zeldin, Dixon, and Ronchetti all still trail in the poll averages (I’ll have a column up this morning looking at where the races stand across the board). All three may yet come up just short. But hopeful signs abound. In the New York poll, Zeldin is tied despite a poll sample in which Democrats have nearly a 2-to-1 advantage, 54 percent of the sample to 28 percent Republicans. The Michigan poll finds Joe Biden with a 39 percent approval rating in the state, and Dixon ahead 50 percent to 29 percent among independents, 53 percent to 22 percent among voters of Hispanic or other non-white/non-black ethnicity, and 42 percent to 41 percent among voters under 40. Biden is in better shape in New Mexico, with a 45 percent approval to 49 percent disapproval, and Lujan Grisham’s approval rating at 50 percent, suggesting the challenge that faces Ronchetti in getting the last few yards to the goal line.

Racial and ethnic breakdowns may be of interest in New Mexico, the least-white state in the continental U.S., but a look at the crosstabs is also a reminder of the instability of small samples. Lujan Grisham leads 54 percent to 41 percent among New Mexico Hispanics, among whom Biden retains a positive approval rating, 48 percent to 43 percent. She leads by a whopping 67 percent to 33 percent among Asian Americans, who are split 44–44 on Biden — but that is literally a subsample of nine voters. It is likewise hard to draw too many conclusions from Ronchetti’s 53 percent to 41 percent lead among Native Americans (among whom Biden is nearly 20 points underwater), given that the sample is only 32 voters.