Over the past week, the second-quarter fundraising totals have trickled out from various campaigns and the super PACs supporting them. Aside from the fact that Jeb Bush raised an eye-popping amount of money, it’s hard to know what to make of all the different numbers.
One important number – perhaps the most important — is cash on hand. (Jeb Bush’s strategy, for example, is to husband his money and sit pretty when several of the early primary contests have passed and many of his competitors have, he calculates, begun to empty their bank accounts.)
The rate at which a candidate spends the money he raises — the burn rate — is important too. One top Republican strategist and pollster tells me that the burn rate is an indicator of the kind of campaign a candidate is running. A candidate with a low burn rate is spending little money, say, on personnel and, essentially, anything that’s not directed toward message delivery. “A campaign that has the discipline to withstand those pressures probably has the ability to last,” the strategist tells me. Back in 2008, during the first financial quarter they were campaigning, Ron Paul had the lowest burn rate: He raised $2.3 million and spent just $539,000, a burn rate of about 23 percent. John McCain, who was written off by nearly everybody, had the highest: He was burning about 64 percent of the money he raised. The rest of the candidates fell somewhere in between.
In 2012, Mitt Romney had the lowest burn rate the first quarter he was in the race: He raised $18.3 million and spent $5.6 million, about 30 percent. Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich were all spending over 80 percent of the money they brought in.
So this is a number that, though by no means dispositive — see McCain 2008 — is worth watching. With the exception of Marco Rubio, none of the other candidates, that I’m aware of, have released cash-on-hand figures that would allow a burn-rate calculation. Others, like Scott Walker, haven’t been in the race long enough to make a calculation. But Rubio’s burn rate is around 19 percent, which is low, and suggests he’s running a streamlined campaign that’s not bleeding money on consultants and staffers. His campaign released a cash-on-hand figure, which suggests they’re proud of this. Jeb Bush’s super PAC, which has spend $5 million of the $103 million it raised, did the same. I’ve asked a few other campaigns for their numbers and will continue to write about this here.