The Corner

Politics & Policy

The Dems’ Path to Senate Dominance Is Narrowing

Univision has called IN-Senate for Young. If confirmed by other organizations, this will be a major win for the GOP. As expected, based on early results, Rand Paul is cruising to victory in Kentucky.

The Democrats will really need to draw to an inside straight if they want to get a great Senate result tonight. At the beginning of this cycle it looked like the Senate could have been an absolute bloodbath for the GOP.

Numerous first-term senators are up for reelection. as well as several swing-state or blue-state senators. But Rubio is looking good in Florida, and Portman should cruise in Ohio. Add Young to the mix and the Democrats looked to have already dropped three very winnable seats.

New Hampshire, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are still out there for the Democrats, who are virtually certain to pick up Illinois and probably going to win in Wisconsin as well — though polls there have tightened of late.

The GOP had maybe 11 seats vulnerable going into this cycle. The Democrats had two. Having already lost three pickup opportunities, even if the Democrats win most of the other close races, their margin in the Senate is not likely to be large. The 2018 map is as bad for the Democrats as 2016 is for the GOP — it is looking increasingly likely that even if the Democrats take the Senate, their margin will not be large enough to keep the GOP from retaking it in 2018.