For the third straight week congressional Republicans are holding their narrow overall lead — and double-digit lead among registered voters — in Gallup’s latest generic congressional ballot.
Republicans lead Democrats by five percentage points among registered voters, 48/32, and by between eleven and 17 points, depending on turnout, among the crucial “likely voter” demo, depending on turnout.
For Republicans to lead, or even be at parity with Democrats, on the generic congressional ballot indicates they are in a good position to win a majority of House seats in the upcoming elections. This is because of Republicans’ typical advantage in voter turnout, which in recent years has given that party an average five-point boost in support on Election Day.
If the elections were held today and roughly 40% of voters turned out — a rate typical in recent years — Gallup’s Oct. 7-17 polling suggests Republicans would win 56% of the vote — 8 points greater than their support from registered voters, and 17 points ahead of Democrats, at 39%. If turnout is significantly higher, Republicans would receive 53% of the vote (a 5-point improvement over their registered-voter figure), and the Democrats, 42%.