Republican representative Tom Cotton of Arkansas is leading Senate incumbent Mark Pryor by seven points, according to a new poll commissioned by the conservative group Citizens United and released to Politico. Cotton leads Pryor among women, 46–42, and leads him 48–41 overall. Previous polls have mostly had Pryor leading Cotton by slim margins, but only garnering just over 40 percent of the vote. Pryor, a red-state Democrat who voted for the Affordable Care Act and the Senate Gang of Eight’s immigration bill, is considered possibly the most vulnerable incumbent senator in his party up for reelection in 2014. (Which may be why the Democratic legislator recently took to the airwaves to remind Arkansans he does believe in God.)
Pryor’s approval rating is positive, 44–39, but Cotton’s is actually stronger, at 39–26.