All that a successful GOP challenger to Trump must do is overcome human nature itself.
For Republican primary voters hopeful that an alternative to Donald Trump might emerge as the GOP presidential nominee next year, a new CBS News/YouGov poll has good news and bad news.
The good news is that, with 27 percent of likely Republican primary voters “not considering Trump” and almost 50 percent more being at least open to the prospect of an alternative nominee, the non-Trump candidates in the race have a shot. But the bad news is that those non-Trump candidates must somehow win the nomination without campaigning against Trump, about whom the Republican primary electorate will not hear one bad word.
It’s not quite the case that potential Republican primary voters cannot stand criticism of Trump (although the poll suggests as much: Only 7 percent of likely GOP primary voters would “prefer” a 2024 presidential nominee who criticizes the former president). Rather, the preference of 56 percent of this cohort is that, should another Republican win the nomination, that person never speak of Donald Trump again. Only 37 percent of GOP primary voters demand slavish loyalty to Trump from his successor; most just want to avoid the subject altogether.
The same dynamic applies to what may be the foremost political liability afflicting Donald Trump’s brand and those Republicans who sidle up beside him: the January 6 riots and the untruths about the 2020 vote that animated the mob. More than six in ten likely GOP voters tell pollsters that they want their candidate to lie to them about the outcome of the last presidential race (i.e., to say that “Trump won in 2020”). Barring that, they don’t want to hear anything about the stolen-election narrative, if only to avoid being confronted with its consequences.
Perhaps unsurprisingly in a poll highlighting Trump’s staying power among Republicans, more GOP presidential primary voters want to hear their presidential nominee support, rather than criticize, the rioters who trespassed onto the Capitol complex. But the majority — 60 percent — don’t want the nominee to mention January 6 at all, much less render any preachy judgments about what occurred on that day.
If Republican voters want nothing more than to be told that Trump actually won the 2020 election, to never hear criticisms of Trump, and to refuse to countenance the notion that Trump’s conduct contributed to a national tragedy, Donald Trump probably has that vote sewn up. Sure, Republicans also want their candidate to “challenge woke ideas,” oppose restrictions on firearm ownership, and make “liberals angry,” all of which any viable Republican alternative to the former president also brings to the table. But why settle for a pallid facsimile when the genuine article is ready and willing?
This is not how voters traditionally evaluate candidates for high office. It’s not how anyone interested in performance would assess a potential employee or service provider. It’s not even how an invested party would appraise the conduct of friends and family. This behavior is closer to how one might judge oneself and one’s self-worth — or, rather, evade such an assessment for fear of what it might reveal.
Rank-and-file Republican voters have invested a lot of psychological capital in Donald Trump. They defended him in bitter disagreements with loved ones. They supported him throughout a four-year lecture from political and cultural elites about their personal shortcomings. They stood by his side when it would have been far easier to acquiesce to the messages with which they were bombarded near daily from the commanding heights of American refinement. And now, they’re asked to abandon him in deference to mere practical concerns — the frankly debatable proposition that he cannot win a general election or the academic notion that he could serve only one more term in office. And give their critics the satisfaction by tacitly admitting that, through years replete with personal sacrifices and compromises, they were wrong all along? Get bent.
Many Trump supporters would probably reject this explanation for what appears from the outside to be a self-destructive enterprise. Some would surely bristle at the notion that their support of the former president was the result of anything other than an intellectual exercise, but that defensiveness is misplaced. To acknowledge the possibility that emotional reasoning might play a role in determining their preferences is to admit little more than to being human.
This poll conveys the impression that many, perhaps even most, Republican voters would not be displeased if Trump disappeared from the political scene as if by magic. But confront them with a binary choice — either repudiate the choices they’ve made in the last four years or ratify them — and you’ll get a lot of doubling down.
That, too, is cold comfort for Republicans who hope to see someone other than Trump emerge as the GOP nominee. All that a successful Trump challenger must do is overcome human nature itself. Best of luck.