Mr. Hagel was out of his depth from the start. He will not be missed. The next SecDef — Ms. Flournoy seems the favorite — will portray more toughness. But the White House will keep hold of all major decisions. Rice should go; now, it looks less likely.
The Islamic State issue will come to a boil over three questions:
1) Will advisers go into combat? (Yes.)
2) Will our aid flow directly to the Sunni and Kurdish tribes instead of through the corrupt government in Baghdad? (This will end in a frustrating compromise.)
3) Will we insist upon a status-of-forces agreement so that we stay for the long term? (No, we will fight and then leave, with Baghdad in the orbit of Iran.)
The war against the Islamic State will rage for many years. When it is over, Iraq will be divided into three parts — Sunni, Kurd, and Shiite.
The next SecDef will have much better working relationships with the military, but the White House policies will remain a mess.