October surprises are not such a big deal anymore; voters’ attitudes are less flexible and they’re less likely to be persuaded by some last-minute news or scandal. But it’s also worth noting that as October progresses, more and more Americans will have already cast their ballots. As of this morning, more than 3.7 million votes have been cast in the 2026 midterms.
In my home state of Virginia, more than 568,000 ballots have already been cast, a higher rate than previous cycles.
The statewide U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Bert Mizusawa isn’t expected to be competitive, but several U.S. House races are expected to be competitive, including the state’s first congressional district race between Republican incumbent Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor; as of this morning, more than 74,000 votes have already been cast in that district.
Down in the Peach State, “Georgians came to the polls in droves on the first day of early voting, breaking the midterm election early voting record with more than 188,600 ballots cast, an increase of more than 53,000 voters over the 2022 midterm election.”
Why are more Americans voting early? Perhaps the campaign season, and its incessant attack ads, has turned into a slog, and voters just want to cast a ballot and get it over with.