Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the Democratic party’s nominee in 2016. Sure, getting to that point is not going to be fun for her – especially if she loses in New Hampshire and Iowa, as seems possible — but, ceteris paribus, she still seems to have the best chance overall. The hype to one side, it really is one thing for Bernie Sanders to have a shot in New Hampshire (he’s from Vermont, remember) and quite another for him to win Arizona, Colorado, or Virginia. Absent a dramatic change in the race, I imagine that Sanders will stay strong in the Ann Arbors and the Portlands and the Madisons, but fail to make serious inroads in the Phoenixes and Denvers and Alexandrias — and, well, pretty much everywhere else. Does Hillary have it sewn up? No, she doesn’t. Is she by far and away the favorite? Yes.
That being said, while her weaknesses will probably not cost her the primary, they should be worrying those who hope she will win the general election. Per the New York Times, her favorability numbers continue to tumble – even in places she should be popular:
A rough political summer has left Hillary Rodham Clinton with negative favorability ratings in a New York State poll for the first time, a low mark in the state she represented as a senator for eight years.
Mrs. Clinton was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent of the voters polled, compared with 46 percent who see her in a favorable light, a new Siena College survey showed. That is a change from a 56 percent favorable rating and a 40 percent unfavorable rating she had in the same survey in July.
Mrs. Clinton is still viewed positively by 70 percent of Democrats, the poll shows. But even in the state she adopted and represented from 2001 through 2008, her poll numbers have followed the same trend as her national numbers, suffering after a summer of questions about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
New. York. State.
Does this mean that a Republican will win New York? No, of course not. But if Clinton is now disliked in her home state, one has to wonder what voters in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio will think come election day. And that will matter a great deal.