Roll Call has just released a poll showing Don Cazayoux (D) leading Woody Jenkins (R), 50 to 41 percent, in Saturday’s U.S. House special election in Baton Rouge. The poll notes of its turnout model:

“[I]f voters are older and/or whiter than SurveyUSA here foresees, the Republican will outperform these numbers.”

It also finds that Jenkins has a fav/unfav of 36/49.