The Corner

“Hold the Senate, House on the bubble”

I was just talking a Republican strategist. Here is his take. He thinks that if the election were held today Republicans would “hold the Senate, and the House is right on the bubble.”  He’s skeptical about many of the polls, noting that they underestimated Republican turnout in 2002 and 2004. “I didn’t believe them in ’02 and I didn’t believe them in ’04, so I’m not sure why I should believe them now.” But he doesn’t doubt that “the environment is tough and the other side is energized.”  He notes that there are “four or five seats where the ball has bounced the wrong way,” a reference to having to keep DeLay and Foley’s names on the ballot in their districts, for instance. If there are really four to five percent more Democrats in the electorate, as polls indicate, it’s going to be a very tough night for Republicans, but he has seen no evidence of that sort of Democratic surge in the turnout in Democratic primaries, in fact the opposite. For what it’s worth…

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