The Corner

On the House

Republicans still think this is basically how it’s looking. They are going to lose 8-10 baked in the cake, more or less. Then, there are 20 other seats they could lose, with probably around 15 too-close-to-call. There are three scenarios: they run the table on those races (and hold the House), split them (and lose the House narrowly), see the Democrats run the table on them (and suffer a blow-out loss). All are these outcomes are possible (if not equally likely), and depend on turn-out and how the election tips at the end. On a few specific races. Republicans think Heather Wilson in NM-1 is narrowly ahead, although within the margin of error. In the CT races, they think they are up slightly. Up slightly in VA-2, Thelma Drake. IN-2, Chris Chocola, is looking tough, but not as tough as IN-8, John Hostettler. Optimistic about TX-22, DeLay seat, and FL-16, Foley seat, although FL-16 might be tougher than TX-22 even though there’s not the write-in factor. In PA-10, Don Sherwood is showing very slight signs of life because his opponent is so bad. In PA-6, Jim Gerlach, and PA-8, Mike Fitzpatrick, Republicans think they have very slight leads. NC-11, Charles Taylor, is looking hard to hold.  The information on absentee voting is changing night-by-night. Some nights the reports are very good, other nights they are not. Very mixed, but maybe more positive than negative. Make of this what you will, but, please note, it is information gleaned from Republicans and is very impressionistic. Feel free to e-mail your own analysis/thoughts…. 

Rich Lowry — Rich Lowry is the editor of National Review. He can be reached via email: comments.lowry@nationalreview.com. 

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