Republicans still think this is basically how it’s looking. They are going to lose 8-10 baked in the cake, more or less. Then, there are 20 other seats they could lose, with probably around 15 too-close-to-call. There are three scenarios: they run the table on those races (and hold the House), split them (and lose the House narrowly), see the Democrats run the table on them (and suffer a blow-out loss). All are these outcomes are possible (if not equally likely), and depend on turn-out and how the election tips at the end. On a few specific races. Republicans think Heather Wilson in NM-1 is narrowly ahead, although within the margin of error. In the CT races, they think they are up slightly. Up slightly in VA-2, Thelma Drake. IN-2, Chris Chocola, is looking tough, but not as tough as IN-8, John Hostettler. Optimistic about TX-22, DeLay seat, and FL-16, Foley seat, although FL-16 might be tougher than TX-22 even though there’s not the write-in factor. In PA-10, Don Sherwood is showing very slight signs of life because his opponent is so bad. In PA-6, Jim Gerlach, and PA-8, Mike Fitzpatrick, Republicans think they have very slight leads. NC-11, Charles Taylor, is looking hard to hold. The information on absentee voting is changing night-by-night. Some nights the reports are very good, other nights they are not. Very mixed, but maybe more positive than negative. Make of this what you will, but, please note, it is information gleaned from Republicans and is very impressionistic. Feel free to e-mail your own analysis/thoughts….
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) has been telling a story for years. It’s a deeply romantic story about her parents and their young love, fraught with the familial bigotry of an earlier time. Here’s how she told it this week in a video she released in preparation for her 2020 run: My daddy always said he ... Read More
Attention, journalists of America: Time is running out! You have under three weeks left to publish your last batch of over-the-top pre-election puff pieces on Texas Democrat/cross-country liberal sensation/wing-and-a-prayer Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke! It is here that we must face the difficult truth: ... Read More
Two Republican candidates for state office in Minnesota have been physically assaulted in recent days, leading prominent Republican lawmakers to caution their Democratic colleagues against employing inflammatory rhetoric. Republican state representative Sarah Anderson was punched in the arm last week after ... Read More
The metaphors don’t get any better (or worse) than this: A van carrying Hillary Clinton, fresh from throwing her Me Too sisters under the bus this weekend, crashed into a parking-garage pillar on the way to a New Jersey campaign fundraiser Tuesday for beleaguered Democratic senator Bob Menendez. At her side was ... Read More