My guess is by 2028, it will become quite difficult to tell the difference between a made-up video of a politician saying something and a real video.
I recently wrote about the potential for AI to lead to massive political upheaval, especially if it rapidly displaces white collar workers as some analysts expect. But here I am thinking of a different type of issue that is likely to emerge ahead of the next election, which is fake AI videos that look real enough to fool people.
Right now, we see how quickly fabrications can spread on social media and create certain narratives. Even after they are debunked, the corrected version often gets a lot less attention than the original fabrication, and so the lie still persists in the memory of a lot of people.
We may still be at the point at which AI fakes can be sniffed out, but judging by the rapid advancements (often demonstrated by the progression of AI-generated videos depicting Will Smith eating spaghetti), my guess is by 2028, it will become quite difficult to tell the difference between a made-up video of a politician saying something and a real video.
This will have two effects. One, most directly, it could lead to situations in which a critical mass of the electorate is convinced a politician said something he or she never said. Alternatively, at a time of historically high distrust of the media, it’s much more likely that people will start to become suspicious of all video content. They will be even more on guard when presented with video that contradicts their priors. While viral AI fakes may be exposed in the presidential race, it may be more of an issue in down ballot races, where fewer people are paying attention enough to vet videos.
I remember how the 2008 election was the first election featuring YouTube. That made it a lot harder for politicians to live down embarrassing moments or to rewrite history. In the Republican primary, for instance, it played an instrumental role of discrediting Mitt Romney as a flip flopper by providing easy access to a ton of pass statements he made while seeking office in the liberal state of Massachusetts. A few years later, the ubiquity of cell phone cameras made it possible to capture candidates in more unscripted moments. My guess is that AI is something all campaign war rooms will have to grapple with by 2028.