House Speaker John Boehner’s ability to thwart a last-minute coup could be as simple as A, B, C — or it could be just that complicated.
There is a political price to be paid for attacking the speaker and failing; some members who dislike Boehner don’t want to oppose him for nothing, but they could get on board if it seems possible to stop Boehner from winning on the first ballot.
“It seems like the number of members who staff are hearing oppose the speaker is growing, but it seems like that number is contingent on everyone else,” one Republican aide told National Review Online.
Lawmakers cast their votes in alphabetical order, so “the toughest sell on this issue with last names of ‘A,’ ‘B,’ ‘C,’” the aide said, adding that “the conservative types at the beginning of the alphabet, if they start opposing early on, I think that’s going to make or break the entire deal.”
That makes someone like Representative Justin Amash (R., Mich.) more influential than other potential Boehner rebels. Amash refused to say which way he would vote Monday evening, but announced his decision to oppose Boehner on Tuesday morning.
“The speaker of the House has one of the most challenging jobs in government,” Amash wrote in a Facebook post. “Speaker Boehner has given his best to our conference, and I thank him for his service. But it’s time for Republicans to change our leadership. This afternoon, I will vote for a new speaker.”
Amash could influence some other House Republicans to take the plunge, the aide said, but the group still probably doesn’t have the 29 votes needed to stop Boehner from winning on the first ballot. But everyone who has opposed Boehner publicly has a powerful incentive to win, so you can be sure they’ll do everything they can in the next couple hours to find new allies.