We first wrote about the challenges a Bush run would pose to Marco Rubio back in April in a piece we called “Marco Rubio’s Jeb Problem.”
Aside from the fact that, ten months later, we now know with virtual certainty that Bush is running, the rest of the piece remains relevant. In recent days, there’s been a steady chorus from various media outlets indicating either that Rubio is facing pressure from his fellow GOPers to run for reelection to the Senate — he has said he will only seek one office in 2016 — or that he is now an underdog, thanks to Bush’s inevitable candidacy, in the shadow war for top Republican donors.
Yes, Bush’s candidacy will be an obstacle to Rubio’s, if he decides to run, and all signs indicate that he will. But I’m not sure it’s much more of an obstacle to Rubio than to any of the other prospective candidates. Sure, they’re both from Florida, just as Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul are all from Texas, and they’ll all have engage in an intrastate battle for money and take down the putative frontrunner, too. (Though he’s a senator from Kentucky, Paul grew up in Texas and his father, former congressman Ron Paul, whose political network Rand inherited, still lives in the Lonestar State.)
The donors quoted in the Rubio v. Bush pieces are longtime leaders of the Republican party of Florida and former members of the George W. Bush administration like Al Hoffman, the former ambassador to Portugal, Mel Sembler, the former ambassador to Italy, and Al Cardenas, who ran the Florida GOP while Bush was governor and is a friend of both Bush’s and Rubio’s. All say they love Rubio, but that for 2016, they’re with Bush. That’s often taken as an indication that Rubio won’t be able to raise enough money, but Rubio’s natural base isn’t made up of those sorts of establishment donors. In fact, when Rubio ran for Senate in 2010, Sembler and Cardenas initially supported his Republican challenger, Charlie Crist. Both donated to Crist in 2009. According to FEC reports, Sembler never gave to Rubio in that race and Cardenas donated to him nine months after he gave to Crist.
Rubio was a tea-party candidate who has made considerable inroads into the conservative establishment. And if he runs for president, there’s no reason to think he won’t do it as the same sort of candidate, which means that, at least in the early going, the overlap with Bush and his donors won’t keep him out.