Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, yesterday: “The Ukrainian Air Force currently has several squadrons of fully mission capable aircraft.”
Two weeks into the war, that is terrific news, and indicates that the Russian air force is perhaps much less effective than its reputation suggested.
But there’s a catch. Fighter squadrons typically are assigned 18–24 aircraft. Assuming several means two or more, this means Ukraine has at least 36 mission-capable aircraft remaining.
According to Flight Global’s world air force directory, at the start of 2022, Ukraine reportedly had 43 MiG-29s, twelve Su-24s, 17 Su-25s, and 26 Su-27s — plus another eight MiG-29s and six Su-27s used for training that could presumably be thrown into service. That adds up to 112 fighter planes.
So far, there are accounts of twelve Ukrainian combat aircraft destroyed or heavily damaged — seven MiG-29s, three Su-27s, and two Su-25s.
Ukraine started the war with perhaps as many as 112 combat aircraft, and now has at least 36, and perhaps as many as 100.
But this makes another comment from Kirby yesterday implausible: “We assess that adding aircraft to the Ukrainian inventory is not likely to significantly change the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force relative to Russian capabilities. Therefore, we believe that the gain from transferring those MiG-29s is low. ”
Clearly, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his country’s military see it differently. It is simple math. In a fight against an invading Russian army, would you rather have 36 MiG-29s, or add Poland’s 28 jets and have 64 MiG-29s available to patrol the skies and attack invading Russians? Adding Poland’s jets would nearly double the amount of MiG-29s that Ukraine can bring to the fight.
PHOTOS: MiG-29 Fighter