Axios reports:
President-elect Donald Trump was backed by 46% of Latino voters Tuesday, surpassing Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to win the biggest share of the national Latino vote by a Republican presidential contender in modern times, a new exit poll shows.
Why it matters: Trump’s historic gains among Latino voters in a range of demographic voting blocs — particularly men — helped push Vice President Harris to the worst showing among Latinos for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years.
Yes, yes, yes — one ought to apply a healthy pinch of salt to all exit polls. But it’s clear that Trump did much better with Hispanic voters than Republicans usually do. As to “why it matters”? I would add this: because politics can be habitual.
One of the arguments I’ve heard advanced in recent years is that when a given voter decides to cross over to the other side, the act of crossing pushes him through an invisible wall. There are, I’m told, a significant number of suburban voters who once went Republican every year, but who started voting for the Democrat when Donald Trump arrived on the scene and who have never gone back to the GOP’s side. I think there’s something to this idea, and, as someone who typically wants Republicans to win, it has bothered me.
But here’s the thing: If it’s true, then it’s true for others, too — including many of the Hispanics and younger voters that the GOP just won over. Obviously, that Trump won 46 percent of Hispanics does not mean that the Republicans will be favored to win 46 percent of Hispanics next time, or even that Republicans will win the next election. Coalitions are transient, circumstances change, candidates matter, and if people come to regret their vote then they won’t repeat the mistake. Nevertheless, if that exit poll is right, there now exist millions of Hispanic voters who have gone into the booth and filled in a bubble next to the Republican’s name for the first time ever. And that, as we’ve learned in recent years, is how coalitions start to change.