As discussed on today’s Three Martini Lunch podcast, third-term Montana Democratic senator Jon Tester does not sound like a sure thing to run for reelection in 2024, and as the Daily Beast lays out, Montana Democrats don’t have much of a Plan B in case Tester chooses to retire. And in an open seat race in Montana, Republicans would be favored — probably heavily favored. If the 66-year-old Tester chooses to run for reelection, he’s got $2.8 million in the bank, a 60 percent approval rating, and all of the traditional advantages of incumbency.
I would note that for the past two weeks, Tester has spat hot fire over the Chinese spy balloon; he fumed, “we are still waiting for real answers on how this happened and what steps the administration took to protect our country, and I will hold everyone accountable until I get them.” That sounds like a man who wants to keep a safe distance from the Biden administration – Biden won a bit more than 40 percent in Montana – and who wants to look like he’s responsive to his constituents.