Just as former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley indicated she’s going to jump into the 2024 presidential race in two weeks, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina fueled speculation about his own intentions by announcing a “Faith in America” tour with stops in Iowa and his home state.
A year out from the start of any actual voting, it’s hard to predict with any degree of certainty what the Republican presidential nomination fight is going to look like. But let’s face it, a lot of us cannot resist the temptation to speculate about how various possibilities could play out, so it’s worth toying around with the idea of what happens if Haley or Scott, or both of them, are on the ballot when the race moves to South Carolina. A few recent polls suggest a scenario in which Haley and Scott help Donald Trump win the state.
In one poll, from the South Carolina Policy Council, Florida governor Ron DeSantis crushes Trump in a head-to-head matchup in the state, 52 percent to 33 percent. In another poll from Trafalgar, with a larger field, Trump is ahead of DeSantis 43–28, and the combined support of Scott (14 percent) and Haley (12 percent) could more than make up the difference.
Again, it’s early, but it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine a politician from South Carolina holding out for the race to come to that state, regardless of how he or she performs in Iowa and New Hampshire.
This isn’t to say everybody should just step aside and clear the field for DeSantis. All candidates should make their case, and DeSantis should have to persuade voters like any other candidate (and as I’ve written before, it could even be argued that DeSantis would benefit from a crowded field). But if Haley gets in and Scott follows, we’ll have to closely watch how it affects the dynamics of the race in South Carolina.