Unlike in the Senate, there are still quite a lot of competitive races for governor that are stubbornly stuck against the Republicans.
Updating the polls via the method I discussed here and last reviewed on Thursday, here is where the races for governor stand in the RealClearPolitics average of public polls, through the end of Friday:
Unlike in the Senate, there are still quite a lot of competitive races for governor that are stubbornly stuck against the Republicans. Most of these feature incumbent Democrats who are themselves stalled below 50 percent (or, in Kathy Hochul’s case, a shade above 50).
The overall picture hasn’t changed much in the final week, although one new Emerson poll in Oregon gives Democrat Tina Kotek her first lead in months, as support for third-party candidate Betsy Johnson is collapsing. This is a common feature of third-party campaigns: if they can’t hold onto a critical mass of voters, their supporters tend to flee to someone with a chance at the end. That is bad, bad news for Christine Drazan. On the more optimistic side, Paul LePage has tightened his race in Maine a bit.
In terms of overall trend lines, some of the governors races now look quite different than they did entering the stretch run, mainly Florida, Minnesota, and New York. But a lot of Republican candidates have gained more ground since then than their Democrat opponents, and are now banking on the Democrats hitting a ceiling as the remaining independents break against them.