Representative Tim Huelskamp lost his seat Tuesday evening, falling to Dr. Roger Marshall in the Republican primary in Kansas’ 1st District. In this deep red western Kansas district, the winner of the primary is almost certain to win the seat in November.
The outcome is remarkable for its reversal of traditional roles in Republican politics: For the first time, the incumbent is the fire-breathing conservative, and the challenger who ousted him is has the backing of the establishment.
The race was a blowout. Many Republicans saw the race as a dead heat heading into primary day, but Marshall held a 57 percent to 43 percent lead over Huelskamp when the Associated Press called the race with 72 percent of precincts reporting. Huelskamp’s imminent demise had become evident much earlier in the evening: Various groups backing Marshall claimed victory, and Huelskamp, according to the AP, kicked reporters out of his election night watch party around 8 p.m. central time.
Certainly, the result is a warning shot to the Freedom Caucus and other conservatives in congress: A primary challenge can cut both ways.
But as I wrote earlier today, Huelskamp was a target for a lot of reasons unique to him. His vote against the Farm Bill for ideological reasons might have won another representative points for conservatism, but it did not play well in his heavily agricultural district. Many Republican voters like to see their representatives bucking House leadership, but Huelskamp lost his spot on the Agriculture Committee as a result, leaving his district without representation on a crucial committee. Some people, quite simply, disliked him.
And the insider versus outsider, conservative versus establishment dynamic is not so clear cut these days. As recently as April, the Club for Growth and the Ricketts family, for instance, were on the same team backing Ted Cruz against Donald Trump. This Kansas primary split them: the Club spent heavily for Huelskamp, while Ending Spending Action Fund — to which the Ricketts’ are major donors — backed Marshall.
Huelskamp, in an interview Monday, attacked House GOP leadership, alleging that “Never before…has a conservative been taken on by folks that are tied closely to leadership in the House and Senate,” and predicted that his primary would “make it more difficult” for House leadership moving forward.
Former Virginia representative and National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Davis had a similar take Monday, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised to see some retaliation” from the Freedom Caucus and their allies if Huelskamp lost.