The respected Quinnipiac Poll is just out and shows Donald Trump holding a 31 percent to 24 percent lead over Ted Cruz in tonight’s caucus (Marco Rubio is at 17 percent). On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has overtaken Hillary Clinton to lead 49 percent to 46 percent.
The gender gaps are stunning, according to Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown: “Men support Trump over Cruz 38–24 percent, while women are divided with 24 percent for Cruz and 23 percent for Trump.”
Among Democrats, Hillary is dominant with women, winning 56 percent to only 39 percent for Sanders. But the Vermont senator dominates males by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin.
The biggest surprise of the night may be that if Quinnipiac is right, we’re in for a record turnout. It found that 44 percent of GOP caucus-goers may be first-timers, and 38 percent of Democrats may be attending their first presidential caucus. If true, those numbers spell smiles for Trump and Sanders.