The survey taken at polling stations across the UK suggests the Tories could get 314 MPs when all the results have been counted in Thursday’s election. Labour would get 266, the Lib Dems 14, UKIP none and the SNP 34, the NOP/Ipsos MORI poll for BBC/ITV/Sky suggests.
It should be remembered that this is not so different to the tally that the exit polls gave the Tories in 2015, and in the end Cameron eked out a majority.
But this looks bleak. The sure thing, most evidently, was not.
Here’s how the pound reacted to the news: