The Corner

Politics & Policy

If Rubio Wins and Trump Loses in Florida…

With Election Day looming, Hillary Clinton holds the narrowest of leads in Florida in the RealClearPolitics average, 46.9 percent to 46.7 percent.

Meanwhile, in the Senate race, Marco Rubio leads in the RealClearPolitics average, 49 percent to 45.3 percent.

The two most likely scenarios right now appear to be a modest Rubio win and a narrow Clinton win, or a modest Rubio win and a narrow Trump win.

If Rubio wins and Trump loses in the Sunshine State, will the Florida senator feel a little vindication, that while his style and agenda didn’t appeal to his home state’s Republicans as much as Trump’s did, it appealed more to the electorate as a whole?

Yes, Trump won the Florida Republican Primary overwhelmingly and won every county except for Miami-Dade.

The final margins in Miami-Dade County will be important. This county is the most populous in Florida and the early vote there was huge — 61 percent higher than in 2012, with 475,864 early voters and 287,224 voters by mail. This is a mostly Democratic county, but it also includes Miami’s Little Havana and is Rubio’s home turf. Four years ago, Obama won, 61 percent to 38 percent. The county has 368,395 registered Republicans, as of September.

The early vote in Florida has been gargantuan – 6.4 million voters – and registered Democrats outpace registered Republicans by a small margin, 39.9 percent to 38.5 percent.

The differing courses of Trump and Rubio in Florida encapsulate the problem for Republicans in 2016 in a nutshell: one candidate is more appealing to an all-Republican pool of voters; the other is more appealing to the voter pool as a whole. The voters in the GOP primary didn’t want to pick the candidate(s) who could best appeal to the electorate as a whole.

Most Popular

Politics & Policy

The Worst Cover-Up of All Time

President Donald Trump may be guilty of many things, but a cover-up in the Mueller probe isn’t one of them. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, attempting to appease forces in the Democratic party eager for impeachment, is accusing him of one, with all the familiar Watergate connotations. The charge is strange, ... Read More

Theresa May: A Political Obituary

On Friday, Theresa May, perhaps the worst Conservative prime minister in recent history, announced her resignation outside of number 10 Downing Street. She will step down effective June 7. “I have done my best,” she insisted. “I have done everything I can. . . . I believe it was right to persevere even ... Read More
PC Culture

TV Before PC

Affixing one’s glance to the rear-view mirror is usually as ill-advised as staring at one’s own reflection. Still, what a delight it was on Wednesday to see a fresh rendition of “Those Were the Days,” from All in the Family, a show I haven’t watched for nearly 40 years. This time it was Woody Harrelson ... Read More
Politics & Policy

The Democrats’ Other Class War

There is a class war going on inside the Democratic party. Consider these two cris de couer: Writing in the New York Times under the headline “America’s Cities Are Unlivable — Blame Wealthy Liberals,” Farhad Manjoo argues that rich progressives have, through their political domination of cities such as ... Read More

The Deepfake of Nancy Pelosi

You’ve almost made it to a three-day weekend! Making the click-through worthwhile: A quick note about how National Review needs your help, concerns about “deepfakes” of Nancy Pelosi, one of the most cringe-inducing radio interviews of all time, some news about where to find me and the book in the near ... Read More
White House

For Democrats, the Party’s Over

If the Democrats are really tempted by impeachment, bring it on. Since the day after the 2016 election they have been threatening this, placing their chips on the Russian-collusion fantasy and then on the phantasmagoric charade of obstruction of justice. The attorney general accurately gave the ingredients of the ... Read More