Jonah, I would like to add my own modest contribution to the Chait bet: five dollars or a six-pack of Pabst Blue Ribbon, whichever is greater, per market forces. But might I suggest one caveat? I’ll bet that the Republicans will not unsuccessfully impeach Obama — that is, they won’t secure an impeachment trial and then see the Senate fail to convict.
The question of the bet, I take it, is whether the Republicans will frivolously impeach the president. But I want insurance against some kind of Watergate-scale infraction that shocks the nation and obviously calls for dramatic action.