On Tuesday, Marilyn Lands, a Democrat, prevailed by 26 points in a special election for a state house seat in Alabama. A Republican had previously won the same seat by seven percentage points. During the campaign, Lands vocally supported legalizing abortion and access to IVF. Her victory in this state legislative race has received coverage from major media outlets including the New York Times, USA Today, Politico, and NBC News.
Anytime a Democrat wins a Republican district by a large margin, that is certainly cause for concern. However, some important context is needed. First, this was a very-low-turnout election. In fact, nearly 60 percent fewer votes were cast in this special election than in the 2022 general election for the same state house seat. It seems fair to say that the Republican candidate failed to effectively mobilize Republican and conservative voters.
Second, Lands outraised her Republican opponent by approximately $80,000. It is unusual for a Democratic candidate to significantly outraise her Republican counterpart for a legislative race in a GOP district. It is safe to say that Democratic candidates will be unable to duplicate this strategy by outspending Republicans in every legislative race.
Third, the Republican candidate was Teddy Powell, who served on the city council of Madison, Ala., and worked a budget analyst for the Department of Defense. Powell’s platform focused on economic development, infrastructure, and education. Media accounts indicate that he spent little time discussing sanctity-of-life issues. Pro-life political analysts know that is a poor strategy, as it allows candidates who support legal abortion to control the narrative.
Fourth, this state house district is located in Madison County, which includes Huntsville, a fast-growing city that attracts many out-of-state professionals. This part of Alabama is more moderate than the rest of the state. Data show that 47 percent of Madison County residents over the age of 25 have college degrees. In comparison, the statewide average is 28 percent. Also, the average income in Madison County is over $20,000 higher than the state average. In short, this is the sort of moderate district that might be sympathetic to a candidate who supports legal abortion.
Lands’s victory is receiving plenty of sympathetic coverage from mainstream media outlets. Unsurprisingly, the media spin is that the salience of IVF and abortion will help Democrats in other races in 2024. Certainly, the Dobbs decision and the ruling of the Alabama state supreme court on frozen embryos both pose some unique challenges for pro-life candidates. That said, in 2022 many pro-life Republicans won in competitive states and competitive districts. Pro-lifers certainly need to be savvy about the political environment, but there is little reason to despair.