Last night was obviously not good for the Republican Party — which isn’t in a good place, and which won’t even begin to be until it ejects Donald Trump — but the hand-wringing that has been prompted by the results out of Virginia might be a little over the top, don’t you think? After a redistricting cycle, the House went from 52R–48D to 49R–51D, and the GOP picked up a seat in the Senate. That’s obviously not what Republicans wanted. Overall, it was a loss, not a victory. But it’s also not especially informative. A shift of this sort is what you might reasonably expect to see when comparing an election in 2021 in which inflation was at its worst for 40 years, and an election in 2023 in which inflation was less bad (albeit not fixed). A shift of this sort is what you might reasonably expect to see when comparing an election in 2021 that included a high-profile gubernatorial race that convinced many voters to cross the aisle, and an election in 2023 that did not. Frankly, a shift of this sort is what you might reasonably expect to see if you ran a simulation a couple of times. As David Weigel has noted, “Youngkin’s Rs did run strong campaigns in Virginia. Pending mail ballots, they’re on track to win every seat that went for Biden by less than 8 points. A lot closer to 2021 than 2020.” That’s not a disaster, by any stretch of the imagination.
Do not misunderstand me: Republicans ought not to ignore their problems. The Democrats continue to make an enormous amount of hay out of Donald Trump and January 6, and, until Republicans have the courage to jettison the man, they will continue to bleed out in the suburbs and among the middle-class voters who reliably showed up to vote for them every year between 1968 and 2016, and who now refuse to do so, however ugly the alternative. Moreover, while it’s not quite as great a liability as the press would have us believe — in Virginia, voters were split in their support for Youngkin’s proposed 15-week ban — the GOP’s opposition to abortion is certainly not helping it win tight races. Nevertheless, the party ought to avoid dropping into a slough of despond and abandoning all the good work it’s done in reviving its apparatus in the state. In 2021, the GOP chose a good gubernatorial candidate, who won the governor’s race and remains still really popular. In 2023, they lost three seats in the House and picked one up in the Senate. That’s disappointing for those who wished to win full control. But it’s not close to being the catastrophe I’m seeing described.