My first prediction about Iowa is that it won’t matter. Now perhaps being from New Hampshire biases me a bit, but let’s face it: any place where “Uncommitted” can win an election isn’t serious. In the Granite State, we still believe in one man, one vote and don’t have silly rules like your vote only counts if your local caucus musters 15% for your candidate.
With all that said, I predict that no matter what happens tonight, the media will spin it as a loss for Dean (because that makes the race more interesting and they’ve already started writing that script). Kerry will come out a winner, and Edwards will not live up to the higher expectations created by his recent poll numbers. Gephardt is a one-state wonder, so how he finishes is pretty much irrelevant.
But, hey, it’s Corn Country and they play by their own rules there, so anything can happen.