Headlines from the last 24 hours suggest that an Iran deal announcement is imminent.
For one, Russia seems to be backing off from recent demands. In the eleventh hour of negotiations, Russia demanded guarantees that its trade with Iran would not be impacted by Ukraine-related sanctions. Chief negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov, told EU negotiators that Russia would accept gentler terms. According to the Wall Street Journal, an unnamed diplomat at the talks claimed that Russia is “happy with guarantees on nuclear projects and not asking for anything else” and that “we can go ahead with negotiations that are now exclusively US-Iran.” Last night on Twitter, Ulyanov also claimed that Russia is not standing in the way of negotiations:
It is a disaster! I am tired of speculations regarding the Russian position at the final stage of the #ViennaTalks. Misunderstandings, misinterpretations and distortion of realities. The bottom line: conclusion of the agreement depends not on Russia, but on others, especially #US https://t.co/mXgpIIsNtp
— Mikhail Ulyanov (@Amb_Ulyanov) March 15, 2022
American negotiators would like you to think they’ve stood up to the Russians by turning down their request for guaranteed sanction insulation. Ned Price, a spokesperson for the State Department, said the U.S. will not allow Russia to use Iran as an “escape hatch” for sanctions relief.
But make no mistake, the U.S. is still making appalling concessions to Putin’s murderous regime. Not only was Russia a key player throughout the talks (despite concurrently invading a sovereign country), but it still received major responsibilities as a result of the talk, including the provision of fuel to Iranian nuclear reactors, overseeing and storing Iranian uranium, and modifying the Fordow nuclear facility.
One more sign of the imminent deal: Iran is starting to release Western hostages. According to Iranian state media, after the British unfroze $530 million of Iranian assets, Tehran released British-Iranian hostages, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori:
It begins. https://t.co/nli7ZcZM5U
— Richard Goldberg (@rich_goldberg) March 16, 2022
If a deal is truly forthcoming, Iran will be flooded with billions of dollars, given a legitimate path to a nuclear program, and have its terrorism sanctions lifted.