In his inaugural address, President Trump famously characterized the U.S. with the phrase “American carnage,” describing “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation.” He carried this tone with him about the state of the economy into his presidency.
As he runs for reelection, his tone has changed. He is heralding “the great American comeback,” arguing that “the years of economic decay are over.”
That’s quite a turnaround in three years. But set that aside. Is this smart politics? I discuss this in my latest Bloomberg column.
Recall that Trump won the White House with 78,000 total votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The performance of wages in those states likely made voters receptive to his message of American carnage. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average weekly wages fell by 1.5%, 2.3% and 2.1% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the fourth quarter of 2016 relative to the same period the year before. Wages also fell over that period in other key election states: Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
It’s hard to predict how wages will perform when the election occurs in the fourth quarter of 2020. But wages have been growing in all those states, and my bet is that the trend continues. This suggests that in the places that matter, the president may be right to pivot from “carnage” to “comeback.”
Check out my column for my full argument. Your comments, as always, are very welcome.