The Corner

Elections

Is Elizabeth Warren Really Ahead in Iowa?

Senator Elizabeth Warren during the Presidential Gun Sense Forum in Des Moines, Iowa, August 10, 2019. (Scott Morgan/Reuters)

A new poll conducted by Change Research shows Elizabeth Warren jumping out to a double-digit lead in Iowa, with Biden and Sanders tied for second place:

Warren 28%

Sanders 17%

Biden 17%

Buttigieg 13%

Harris 8%

Booker 3%

O’Rourke 3%

Gabbard 2%

Klobuchar 2%

Steyer 2%

Bullock 2%

Castro 1%

Yang 1%

Bennet 1%

A few grains of salt: 

One: The Change Research poll was conducted entirely online, and RealClearPolitics doesn’t include Change Research polls in its polling averages.

Two: A Monmouth survey (conducted via telephone by actual human beings) found Biden still holding the lead at 28 percent, with Warren in second place at 19 percent, and Sanders in third place at 9 percent. The Monmouth poll was in the field August 1 to 4, just a week before the Change Research poll was conducted from August 9 to 11. Nothing dramatic occurred in the Democratic primary between August 4 and August 9.

Three: CNN’s polling analyst Harry Enten notes that Change Research “had Buttigieg leading and at 25% in Iowa. I think skepticism is warranted.”

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