Interesting analysis from Henry Olsen on the question of whether a large field necessarily helps Trump:
Trump’s 2016 strength was the polar opposite of what it is now. Today, he is the choice of the most-committed conservatives, but those voters were Cruz’s bastion two presidential cycles ago. Exit polls showed that Cruz won voters who called themselves very conservative in almost every state. He even carried them in Indiana despite being clobbered statewide. Cruz lost because moderate Republicans were Trump’s primary base, and the party’s decisive swing vote — the “somewhat conservatives” — preferred Trump to the man who had risen to national prominence by tarnishing them as RINOs.
2016’s experience poses two lessons for 2024. First, an early large field does not automatically redound to Trump’s benefit. Too few delegates are at stake in the early races for him to build a lead with plurality victories. But it is crucial that candidates with no chance of winning drop out before Super Tuesday. That’s why Democratic candidates in 2020, such as Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, abandoned their campaigns and endorsed Joe Biden within hours of Biden’s thumping South Carolina win in 2020.
It’s also essential that the non-Trump candidate who emerges from 2024’s early contests is broadly acceptable to most Republican voters open to nominating someone other than the former president. In a way, Biden fit this sort of “compromise” candidate for Democrats in 2020, when Sen. Bernie Sanders started off as the leading candidate.
What does this mean for Trump’s challengers?
This poses challenges for each of Trump’s potential foes. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is flying high now because many MAGA-oriented voters like his brash persona. But that brashness rankles many of the more traditional Republicans, who remain a large force within the party even as they no longer control it. If DeSantis leans too far toward Trumpian rhetoric and policy, these voters might decide there is not a dime’s bit of difference between him and Trump.
Others such as former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, former vice president Mike Pence or Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina face the opposite challenge. They could rise to relevance by poaching traditional Republicans’ first-choice votes. But if one of them drives DeSantis out without gaining favor with his MAGA-friendly support, Trump would get those second-choice votes, just as he did when the field winnowed in 2016.
Republican elites should fret less about the number of candidates and worry more about their quality. The party’s voters will eventually settle on the person who comes closest to representing the party’s wide range of viewpoints. If Trump’s opponents push someone who doesn’t do that, he will prevail no matter when the field shakes out.