Jeff gives Biden the advantage in the general. I’ve been pretty bullish on Trump’s general-election chances for a while now, by which I mean I’ve put it at about a 50–50 race. One of my assumptions, though, was that the economy would continue to be so-so, whereas it looks like the job market is now roaring. If that stays true, it obviously will be a major factor in Biden’s favor, quite possibly taking the edge off the broad, deep discontent in the country. I’m still sticking with a 50–50 proposition for now, but you can’t blame the White House for thinking it’s been a pretty good couple of months politically, between drawing Trump as Biden’s opponent (barring something unforeseen) and the latest economic data.