The Corner

Science & Tech

Is New York Reaching Herd Immunity?

A couple herd-immunity studies have come out recently that are worth thinking about. The “herd immunity” threshold, of course, is the percentage of the population that needs to be infected before a virus starts naturally petering out.

The idea here is that when a disease infects people in a population, it works as a sort of “targeted vaccine,” hitting the people who are most susceptible to infection and/or have the most social contacts. If these people are the first to become immune, the virus slows down much more quickly than it would if the same number of people were, say, vaccinated at random.

Many epidemiological models don’t consider this dynamic, and when it’s added, the herd-immunity threshold can be far lower than you’d otherwise expect. These studies seem tentative at this point, but they would explain how a place as dense as New York has managed to keep the virus under control for so long.

One study suggests that “the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the persistent heterogeneity herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic, thereby limiting the spread of infection to other regions during a potential second wave of the epidemic.” Another says the threshold could be as low as 10 to 20 percent, though that seems too low.

It’s great news if the worst-case scenario isn’t as bad as we thought, though getting the entire country to herd immunity still doesn’t sound pleasant.

Most Popular

Immigration

Did the DACA Ruling Bury Constitutionalism?

In reacting to President Trump's recent executive orders, Jim Geraghty asks “Do Americans Even Care If There's a Constitution?" He reluctantly suggests that the answer is “no.” This didn't happen all at once -- Woodrow Wilson was probably the first notable to explicitly express the progressive ... Read More
Immigration

Did the DACA Ruling Bury Constitutionalism?

In reacting to President Trump's recent executive orders, Jim Geraghty asks “Do Americans Even Care If There's a Constitution?" He reluctantly suggests that the answer is “no.” This didn't happen all at once -- Woodrow Wilson was probably the first notable to explicitly express the progressive ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Trouble with the Curve

Unherd -- a British website featuring independent thinkers on the left and right – has a good interview with Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist who has led the pandemic response in Sweden. Sweden is one of the few western democracies that did not impose a strict de jure lockdown to deal with COVID-19, though as ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Trouble with the Curve

Unherd -- a British website featuring independent thinkers on the left and right – has a good interview with Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist who has led the pandemic response in Sweden. Sweden is one of the few western democracies that did not impose a strict de jure lockdown to deal with COVID-19, though as ... Read More
U.S.

Bloc Heads

Welcome to The Tuesday, a cheery little weekly newsletter about the existential despair Irving Kristol indicated when he noted that Western civilization is collapsing “but it’ll take a long time, and, meanwhile, it’s still possible to live well.” The Bloc Party Right-leaning writers hawking books about ... Read More
U.S.

Bloc Heads

Welcome to The Tuesday, a cheery little weekly newsletter about the existential despair Irving Kristol indicated when he noted that Western civilization is collapsing “but it’ll take a long time, and, meanwhile, it’s still possible to live well.” The Bloc Party Right-leaning writers hawking books about ... Read More
White House

An Abuse of Presidential Authority

President Trump is abusing his authority, just as his predecessor Barack Obama abused his. Two executive actions he took in the name of COVID relief over the weekend are attempts to legislate without the legislature. Trump has for months sought a payroll-tax holiday but encountered bipartisan resistance to the ... Read More
White House

An Abuse of Presidential Authority

President Trump is abusing his authority, just as his predecessor Barack Obama abused his. Two executive actions he took in the name of COVID relief over the weekend are attempts to legislate without the legislature. Trump has for months sought a payroll-tax holiday but encountered bipartisan resistance to the ... Read More
Immigration

Going after the Employers of Illegal Aliens

One year ago, ICE raided multiple chicken plants in Mississippi, arresting hundreds of illegal aliens. Dozens of them have been convicted of various federal crimes, such as identity theft and document fraud. But what about their employers? Simply arresting a bunch of illegals, and leaving it at that, is both ... Read More
Immigration

Going after the Employers of Illegal Aliens

One year ago, ICE raided multiple chicken plants in Mississippi, arresting hundreds of illegal aliens. Dozens of them have been convicted of various federal crimes, such as identity theft and document fraud. But what about their employers? Simply arresting a bunch of illegals, and leaving it at that, is both ... Read More