Is it impeachment or the Democratic primary that’s boosting Trump’s approval rating?
Consider some recent history: In Gallup polls, President Barack Obama had a negative net job-approval rating the last four months of 2011. Then, right as Republicans headed off to the January 3, 2012 Iowa caucuses, Obama’s net job-approval rating recovered. On January 5, 2012, Gallup found that 45 percent of Americans approved and 46 percent disapproved of his job performance.
Flash forward to today, the day after the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses, and Gallup shows Trump posting an approval rating of 49 percent with 50 percent disapproving. Trump’s net approval-rating of -1 is identical to Obama’s following the 2012 Iowa caucuses.
Obama’s job-approval rating only recovered when Americans started paying attention to the likely Republican alternative. The same phenomenon may be happening as Americans tune in to the 2020 Democratic primary.