In my latest New York Post column, I take on the Biden team trying to redefine “recession”:
The traditional rule of thumb for when an economy is in a recession is a decline in gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters — a shrinking economy for half a year. Under previous presidents, that was not a controversial definition. In 2008, Joe Biden’s National Economic Council director, Brian Deese, wrote, “Economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.”
But here’s Deese Wednesday: “Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.” He’s not the only one. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Sunday: “we are not in a recession now” even if GDP declines for a second straight quarter. “That’s not the technical definition.”
You can guess the reason for the spin: When the second-quarter GDP number came out Thursday — surprise! — it was negative for the second straight quarter. Just don’t say the R-word. President Biden’s response: “That doesn’t sound like recession to me.” It’s like a three-card-monte dealer looking you in the eye and saying, “That’s not the queen.”
Yeah, and speech is violence while riot is mostly peaceful protest. Some of the fact checks applied to Trump when he brushed off recession fears in 2019 are hilarious in retrospect. CNN’s Daniel Dale:
During a question and answer session with reporters on Sunday, Washington Post White House bureau chief Philip Rucker told President Donald Trump that “a lot of economists say that you should be preparing for a recession.” Trump responded that he is “prepared for everything,” but that “I don’t think we’re having a recession.” Speaking to reporters before he boarded Air Force One in New Jersey, Trump pointed to Walmart’s strong second-quarter earnings as a sign that consumer spending is healthy. Then he said, “And most economists actually say, Phil, that we’re not going to have a recession. Most of them are saying we’re not going to have a recession.”
Facts First: We don’t have data on what every economist thinks. But prominent bank economists have warned this month of a significant risk of a coming recession, and a survey of business economists, mostly conducted in July, found that 74% thought there would be a recession by 2021.
The US is still in its longest uninterrupted economic expansion ever; nobody knows for sure if or when a recession might hit. And since we don’t have comprehensive data on economists’ views, we can’t declare Trump’s claim about “most” of them false. But multiple economists have said this month that the possibility of a recession is real and growing.
The Washington Post‘s Glenn Kessler:
[Trump]: “Your statement about, ‘Oh, will we fall into a recession for two months,’ Okay? The fact is, somebody had to take China on. My life would be a lot easier if I didn’t take China on. But I like doing it because I have to do it.”
[Kessler fact-check]: A recession is two quarters of negative economic growth. That’s six months, not two months.