There are some reports from Ukrainian sources that Russian forces appear to be preparing for a massive buildup around Kyiv.
Moscow is willing to negotiate terms of surrender with kyiv, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
In exchange Ukraine would: a guarantee of neutral status and the promise of no weapons on its territory. Per RT.— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) February 24, 2022
If this is all true, it suggests that Russia’s objective is not total reabsorption of Ukraine, but changing its regime to one that is “neutral,” disarmed, and solicitous of Moscow. Most will respond that this is a distinction without a difference, but it’s not. The similarity is compliance from Kyiv. But occupation and direct rule from Moscow would be much more miserable for everyday Ukrainians. An attempt to absorb a larger slice of Ukraine or all of it would give credibility to the theory that Putin’s aims are primarily revanchist and expansionist, and that Putin is entirely mad. This is a theory worth entertaining after Putin’s quite mad speech earlier this week.
If, however, he is seeking regime change, it suggests he is already thinking about the limits of Russia’s power.