The problem may simply be that not enough people like McCarthy personally.
Following overnight negotiations and reports of a much-hyped “deal,” Representative Kevin McCarthy not only lost his seventh vote to be speaker of the House, but he did not move the needle at all — 20 Republicans still voted against him, and he’s stuck at 201 votes, 17 short of a majority.
As I write, the eighth vote is ongoing, which McCarthy is also on track to lose. (Update: He did.)
It is a good time for McCarthy to consider dropping out. I say this not as somebody who believes that knocking out McCarthy will somehow cleanse Washington, but as somebody who can recognize reality.
It would be one thing if McCarthy were gaining support with each successive vote or there were reason to believe that further concessions would win over skeptics, but there is little reason to believe that is the case.
To be sure, the much-discussed deal may not have been totally finalized. It is theoretically possible that once it is, McCarthy will move more votes. But the leaking of the deal also appears to have angered McCarthy’s detractors. Representative Scott Perry said it has only hardened his resolve by sowing more distrust:
A deal is NOT done. When confidences are betrayed and leaks are directed, it’s even more difficult to trust. Totally unsat. I will not yield to the status quo.
— Rep. Scott Perry (@RepScottPerry) January 5, 2023
Another factor is that, as Andy has noted, a combination of winning over some skeptics and convincing others to vote “present” could get him across the finish line by effectively reducing the threshold needed to get over the top. But this strategy would require getting a number of people to play ball who have been resistant to playing ball. Also, even if McCarthy were to become speaker by gaining, say, 215 votes instead of 218, it isn’t a particularly encouraging way to begin a job that carries the primary responsibility of getting a majority of the House to vote with you on a range of difficult issues.
The problem may simply be that not enough people like McCarthy personally. At a certain point, the only thing that will seriously change the equation would be for McCarthy to withdraw and for another candidate (Representative Steve Scalise or somebody else) to step in. Only then will we know how much of this is about McCarthy himself rather than something much deeper.
I get that McCarthy’s lifetime ambition has been to become speaker, and he’s contorted himself in all sorts of ways to get control of the gavel, but at a certain point you have to read the writing on the wall.