I haven’t been very bullish on Biden but he has front-runner numbers nationally out of the gate, per the latest CNN poll:
Biden 39%
Sanders 15%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 7%
O’Rourke 6%
Harris 5%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Castro 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Inslee 1%
Swalwell 1%
Williamson 1%
Yang 1%
de Blasio <1%
Ryan <1%
Bennet 0%
Delaney 0%
Hickenlooper 0%
Messam 0%
Moulton 0%
Henry Enten breaks down his strength among non-Twitter Democrats:
…despite what you may have read:
- -A majority of Democrats are over the age of 50
- -At least 50% of Democrats call themselves moderate or conservative
- -A majority lack a college degree
These three demographic and ideological facts are why our poll has Biden so far ahead.
Age: Biden’s up 30% to 19% over Sanders among Democrats under the age of 50. Among those age 50 and older, Biden holds an astounding 48% to 11% over Sanders. That is, his lead more than triples among older voters.
Ideology: Biden and Sanders are about even among those who call themselves “very liberal.” Biden though gains support as you go from left to right in the party. He holds an over 30 point advantage among moderate and conservative Democrats.
Education: Biden is up just 11 points among Democrats with a college degree. That climbs to 32 points among those without a college degree. (Note too this occurs on a continuous scale. Biden is weakest among postgraduates and strongest among those who never even attending college, let alone graduated from it.)
Caveat to all of this: It’s very early.