In recent weeks, John Bolton has been the target of a murder plot by the Iranian regime. Naturally, we talk about this in the podcast we recorded on Tuesday morning: Go here. Bolton has displayed sangfroid in the face of this plot. Still, the whole thing is horrifying, certainly to me.
As it happens, I know two people who have been targeted for murder by the Iranian regime. The other is Masih Alinejad, the Iranian-American journalist and activist. A podcast with her is coming up shortly.
In Tuesday morning’s podcast, Bolton and I talk about Iran’s nuclear program and what to do about it. He is strongly opposed to reentry into the “deal.” He favors a policy of regime change. This is not to say that the United States would commit troops; it is to say that the U.S. would bolster opposition within Iran.
He makes an elementary point about Iran, and one that bears emphasizing, and reemphasizing: Iran under the Khomeinists is not only a state sponsor of terrorism; this Iran is a terror-state.
We also discuss Ukraine: the courage and determination of the Ukrainians; the support of the United States (indispensable); the relative weakness — perhaps surprising — of the Russian military.
Bolton says that Putin may try to “grab the political and diplomatic initiative” and declare a ceasefire — with the ceasefire line the new border between Russia and Ukraine. Europe might go for this, as wintertime is coming, and Europeans will be wanting that Russian gas.
If the United States allows this, says Bolton — if Russia is able to seize Ukrainian territory a second time by force — the negative effects will be many and widespread.
He talks about NATO, and its importance: the difference it makes in Europe and to the security of the United States. Russia has never crossed a NATO border. The Kremlin’s assault on Ukraine concentrated Swedish and Finnish minds, to put it mildly.
How about the American Right? Will it stick with NATO? Will our Right support Ukraine, in its fight to stay alive against the expansionist dictatorship next door? These are other topics of our conversation.
Taiwan, too, is on our agenda. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan did not create tension with China, says Bolton; it revealed the existing tension. Thus, it was a “teaching moment,” says Bolton — a teaching moment for the American people. We need a big national debate on China and Taiwan, he says. In Bolton’s view, it is now time to ditch a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Americans should be apprised of the threat posed by China and of the relation between Taiwan’s independence and our security.
Staying in the Far East, we discuss the Koreas. The U.S. is currently engaged in military exercises with our South Korean ally. President Trump canceled these, calling them “war games,” as Bolton says. Trump thought they were needlessly provocative of the North Koreans. Bolton points out that North Korea never stopped its own “war games.” He explains, in some detail, why joint exercises between our forces and South Korea’s are important, for the sake of deterrence and peace.
John Bolton is a lawyer, as well as a diplomat and national-security analyst. He worked in the Justice Department. And he has had a career of handling classified documents. In our podcast, we talk about the recent FBI search at Donald Trump’s home in Palm Beach.
The former president spent 18 months refusing to turn over the documents in question to the National Archives, says Bolton. And these are not Trump’s personal documents, but rather the property of the U.S. government. And some of the documents are very highly classified.
“What we need to do is let the legal process play out,” says Bolton. Some Democrats say Trump should be prosecuted immediately. But they don’t have nearly enough information to go on, says Bolton.
He continues, “My advice to everybody is, calm down and let our system of due process work here.”
On television, Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican, said that, if Trump is prosecuted, “there will be riots in the street.” According to Bolton, Graham should have gone on to say, “And I would condemn that violence, and I urge everyone who’s upset about this search to stay calm and stay within the parameters of our legal system.”
Bolton adds the following: “If you don’t like an outcome in our legal system and you decide that violence is the answer, you’re overthrowing the Constitution. You get due process in the United States. You’re not guaranteed a win.”
We end our podcast as we began it: with Iran, and with the murder plot against John. I recall Barbara Bush: “I believe in God and the Secret Service, in that order.” She said she thought the Secret Service was the best agency in the U.S. government. Bolton has Secret Service protection now, as he did when he was in the White House. “If you’re not safe with the Secret Service,” he says, “there isn’t any safety.”
He immediately pivots to what he regards as the larger issue: “The important thing here, however, is to make sure the regime in Iran doesn’t think that this kind of approach” — murdering former or present officials, murdering U.S. citizens on American soil — “can succeed with the United States.”
As always, John Bolton is very interesting, very well-informed, and very frank. Again, for our podcast, our Q&A, go here.