John Fund sees hope in Hawaii:
Hawaii has long been Democratic territory, but President Obama’s birth state may be rejecting him and his party as Republicans look increasingly competitive in three key races.
Few pundits would have given high survival chances to Charles Djou, who last May captured a Honolulu-based congressional district in a three-way special election. His victory was written off to bitter divisions in the Democratic Party between supporters of liberal Colleen Hanabusa and moderate Ed Case, both of whom appeared on the ballot
Surprise. New polling shows Mr. Djou up by four points in his reelection bid against Ms. Hanabusa. Though Mr. Case dropped out of the race early on (“for the good of the party,” he said), his supporters are keeping alive his resistance to the Democratic machine of Senator Daniel Inouye, a Hanabusa backer. Polls show sizeable numbers of Case supporters now abandoning the Democrat for Mr. Djou.
A similar dynamic may be behind the shrinking lead of former Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie in the governor’s race. Some polls have his edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona down to only two points. The Democratic Governors Association is fighting back with a new ad framing a vote for Mr. Aiona as a vote against President Obama. The ad quotes Mr. Aiona himself saying electing a GOP governor would be a “knock-out punch” against Hawaii’s favorite son in the White House.