House speaker Kevin McCarthy’s narrow majority will put him at a distinct disadvantage in the debt-ceiling fight relative to what John Boehner had to work with back in 2011.
The reason is that during these sorts of standoffs between the House and Senate, it’s always helpful to the negotiating position of one chamber when the majority party is able to pass a bill, and then deflect blame to the other chamber for blocking it.
This was a strategy that Boehner employed during the 2011 debt-ceiling fight. As an example, during a tense point in the impasse, the House passed a bill that would have raised the debt ceiling in exchange for equivalent spending cuts, and an agreement that the next debt-ceiling increase would require sending a balanced budget amendment to the states.
After it passed, Boehner shouted, “This House has acted, and it’s time for the administration and time for our colleagues across the aisle: Put something on the table!”
The bill had 22 Republican defections, but because Republicans controlled 240 House seats, Boehner was able to pass something 218–210.
In the current House, Republicans have only 222 seats and McCarthy can only afford to lose four. Given how hard it was for him to even survive a leadership vote, it will likely be difficult for him to cobble together a majority for Republican debt-ceiling plans that could pass the House and put the ball in Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer’s court.
Lacking that ability puts McCarthy at a disadvantage going into the looming showdown.