The latest Granite State Poll released by the University of New Hampshire should make Democrats nervous about the reelection of Senator Maggie Hassan, and despairing about defeating the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu. The UNH poll, conducted April 14–18, is only the second poll of the race since the start of 2022, and the first in a month. While it is, as usual, dicey to overread a single poll, the UNH poll is much grimmer news for Hassan than the Saint Anselm poll in March, which could reflect a trend. Worse, for the incumbent Democrat, her own numbers are more or less stuck in place; it’s the number of people warming to Republican opponents that is rising.
For now, the leading Republican challenger is former Army special forces Brigadier General Don Bolduc, a hard-edged MAGA candidate who lost the Republican primary for Senate to Corky Messner by a 50–42 margin in 2020. Bolduc polls at 33 percent, with all the other Republicans in single digits but 58 percent undecided. With the primary not held until September 13, there is still plenty of time for other candidates to introduce themselves to the small, typically attentive New Hampshire electorate. Of the three other Republicans tested against Hassan — New Hampshire Senate president Chuck Morse, Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith, and cryptocurrency entrepreneur Bruce Fenton — 54 percent of voters had no opinion of Morse (including 50 percent of Republican primary voters), and over 70 percent had no opinion of the others. Moreover, the filing deadline isn’t until June 10; while Sununu, the party’s dream recruit, has definitively passed on the race to run for reelection, it is not impossible that a higher-profile challenger such as Messner, former senator Kelly Ayotte, or former congressman Frank Guinta could yet enter the race. Ayotte would probably be the most formidable of these — she got 60 percent of the vote in 2010 and lost to Hassan by 1,017 votes in 2016, in a state that is known for second chances – but she was reported in November to have ruled out another run.
The big blinking light is that Hassan has just a 35 percent approval rating and a 51 percent disapproval rating — warning signs consistent with why she recently visited the Mexican border. Hassan had net favorable ratings for almost all of Donald Trump’s presidency, but has been underwater in the UNH polls since early in Joe Biden’s term. UNH did not test Biden’s favorability, which was 15 points underwater in the Saint Anselm poll (43–57). Sununu, by contrast, has a 51–24 favorability edge, suggesting that New Hampshire voters aren’t just in a generalized anti-incumbent mood.
Against Bolduc, UNH shows Hassan barely ahead, 47–46, down from a five-point 44–39 lead in the Saint Anselm poll. As an incumbent in a competitive state in a wave year, polling below 50 percent is a danger sign. Matched against the less-known opponents, Hassan polls even more poorly and further below 50: She trails Morse 46–44 (down from a 43–36 lead), and leads Smith 45–44 (down from a 44–34 lead). Only against Fenton, a completely unknown amateur, does she retain a six-point lead, but 46-40 is not a great position for an incumbent against a guy 79 percent of the voters haven’t even heard of yet. Sununu, meanwhile, polls at a whopping 55–29 percent edge over his main rival, Tom Sherman.
The poll sample is 52 percent self-identified Biden voters, 45 percent 2020 Trump voters — in line with the actual results. The party identification survey, which I have regarded with some skepticism ever since 2012, shows an interesting split: 30–28–42 Republican-Democrat-Independent by registration, but 43–43–14 by party identification. A lot of New Hampshire’s many independents are more sorted into parties than they appear. Notably, Hassan leads Bolduc 49–41 among registered independents and 41–37 among self-identified independents; her problem is weakness with Democrats. However, her 31–54 favorable-unfavorable rating with self-identified independents suggests why she has a tough job holding them.
The gender gaps are enormous: Hassan leads all of the Republicans by 20 or more points among women, but is so badly buried among men to wipe out any advantage. Her best age demographic against the Republican challengers is voters age 18–34, but her favorability with those voters is 53 percent unfavorable versus 23 percent favorable. Depending on young voters to turn out, when you’re at the top of the ticket, the other marquee race is uncompetitive, and you are thirty points under water with those voters . . . well, good luck with that.